Table 3 Adjusted odds ratios of subsequent switching across baseline risk perceptions, among 10 + CPD smokers

Direct comparative risk

JUUL more/much more harmful

Ref.

About the same (vs. more/much more harmful)

1.32 (0.76–2.30),

p = 0.323

JUUL less harmful

(vs. about the same)

1.48 (1.34–1.63),

p < 0.001

JUUL much less harmful (vs. less harmful)

1.29 (1.21–1.36),

p < 0.001

Indirect comparative risk (continuous)

Linear term

1.007 (1.005–1.008),

p < 0.001

Quadratic term

0.9999 (0.9998–0.9999)

p < 0.001

Indirect comparative risk (categorical)

0 to < 1

Ref.

1 to < 2 (vs. 0 to < 1)

1.24 (0.94–1.63),

p = 0.124

2 to < 3 (vs. 1 to < 2)

1.10 (1.02–1.18),

p = 0.011

3 to < 6 (vs. 2 to < 3)

1.12 (1.04–1.21),

p = 0.004

6 to 100 (vs. 3 to < 6)

1.19 (1.11–1.28),

p < 0.001

Sex

Male

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Female

1.01 (0.96–1.07),

p = 0.632

0.97 (0.92–1.03)

p = 0.285

0.97 (0.92–1.02),

p = 0.276

Transgender

0.63 (0.38–1.06),

p = 0.085

0.62 (0.36–1.06),

p = 0.082

0.63 (0.38–1.07),

p = 0.089

Race/ethnicity

Non-Hisp white

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Non-Hisp black

1.26 (1.05–1.52),

p = 0.014

1.32 (1.10–1.59),

p = 0.003

1.35 (1.12–1.62),

p = 0.001

Non-Hisp Asian

0.91 (0.79–1.06),

p = 0.228

0.93 (0.81–1.08),

p = 0.366

0.94 (0.82–1.09),

p = 0.426

Hispanic

0.99 (0.88–1.11),

p = 0.815

0.94 (0.84–1.06),

p = 0.314

0.95 (0.85–1.06),

p = 0.373

Other/multi

0.98 (0.86–1.12),

p = 0.771

1.02 (0.89–1.16),

p = 0.787

1.03 (0.90–1.18),

p = 0.632

Age

0.99 (0.99–1.00),

p = 0.003

1.00 (0.99–1.00),

p = 0.185

1.00 (0.99–1.00),

p = 0.150

Education

High school or less

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

Some college/AA

0.86 (0.81–0.91),

p < 0.001

0.88 (0.83–0.94),

p < 0.001

0.87 (0.82–0.93),

p < 0.001

Bachelor’s or more

0.83 (0.77–0.90),

p < 0.001

0.84 (0.78–0.90),

p < 0.001

0.83 (0.77–0.89),

p < 0.001

Income

<$50k

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

$50-$100k

1.14 (1.07–1.21),

p < 0.001

1.17 (1.10–1.24),

p < 0.001

1.16 (1.09–1.24),

p < 0.001

>$100k

1.30 (1.20–1.41),

p < 0.001

1.31 (1.21–1.42),

p < 0.001

1.29 (1.19–1.40)

p < 0.001

Employment

Don’t work for pay

Ref.

Ref.

Ref.

< 15 h/week

0.95 (0.78–1.17),

p = 0.656

0.91 (0.74–1.11),

p = 0.352

0.89 (0.73–1.09),

p = 0.259

15–34 h/week

0.90 (0.81–1.01),

p = 0.069

0.87 (0.78–0.98),

p = 0.018

0.87 (0.77–0.97),

p = 0.011

35 + hrs/week

1.03 (0.95–1.11),

p = 0.534

1.02 (0.94–1.10),

p = 0.698

1.01 (0.93–1.09),

p = 0.802

Average CPD over P30D

0.99 (0.98–0.99),

p < 0.001

0.99 (0.99–0.99),

p < 0.001

0.99 (0.99–0.99),

p < 0.001

Smoking days in P30D

0.95 (0.94–0.96),

p < 0.001

0.95 (0.94–0.96),

p < 0.001

0.95 (0.93–0.96),

p < 0.001

Smoking duration in years

0.98 (0.98–0.99),

p < 0.001

0.98 (0.98–0.99),

p < 0.001

0.98 (0.98–0.99),

p < 0.001