From: Transitions in alcohol use over time: a survival analysis
Model/variables | To first drink | Heavy drinking | Alcohol dependence | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
To first HD | To remission | To relapse | To first AD | To remission | To relapse | ||
1738 event, 31 censored | 1293 event, 442 censored | 932 event, 363 censored | 157 event, 775 censored | 640 event, 1904 censored | 524 event, 117 censored | 68 event, 456 censored | |
Model 1: Clinical risk | N = 1158 | N = 1141 | N = 1288 | N = 675 | N = 1113 | N = 506 | N = n/a |
 Psychiatric risk | |||||||
  Nicotine dep | 1.19** | 1.30*** | – | – | 1.40** | – | – |
  Externalizing | 1.41*** | 1.14*** | 0.89** | 1.28†| 1.31*** | 0.89†| – |
  Internalizing | – | 1.06 | 1.16** | – | 1.38*** | – | – |
 Family history | |||||||
  Father | 1.13†| 1.15†| – | – | 1.30** | – | – |
  Mother | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
  Twin | 1.28*** | 1.39*** | – | 1.54†| 2.22*** | 0.79†| – |
Model 2: individual predictors | N = 925 | N = 931 | N = 715 | N = 517 | N = 900 | N = 334 | N = 279 |
 Personality traits | |||||||
  Extraversion | – | – | 0.97*** | – | – | – | 0.95 |
  Openness | 1.01 | – | – | 1.05†| – | – | – |
  Neuroticism | 0.98** | – | – | – | 1.02†| – | – |
  Agreeableness | 0.97** | 1.00 | 1.03** | 0.95†| 0.99 | 1.03** | – |
  Conscientiousness | – | – | 1.02** | – | – | – | – |
 Drinking motives | |||||||
  Enhancement | 1.02†| 1.05*** | 0.97** | – | 1.04** | – | – |
  Social | 1.02 | – | 0.97** | 1.10*** | – | – | – |
  Coping | – | – | 0.97** | – | 1.05*** | 0.95*** | 1.15*** |
  Conformity | – | – | 1.05** | – | – | – | 0.86** |
 Alcohol expectancies | |||||||
  Risk and aggression | 1.08*** | 1.09*** | – | 1.12 | 1.14*** | – | – |
  Tension reduction | – | 1.10** | 0.99 | – | – | – | – |
  Sociability | 1.05 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
  Sexuality | – | – | – | 0.78†| – | – | – |
  Liquid courage | – | – | – | 0.74** | – | – | – |
  Cog and Beh impair | 0.96 | 0.96 | 1.14*** | – | – | 1.00 | – |
  Self-perception | – | – | – | – | 1.07 | – | – |